The Future of Broadband

Ok, I'm going to get really geeky here for a minute (yes, geekier than the last entry, where I mentioned Miyazaki and Jin-Rô).

So, here's the question? Is there a reasonable upper limit for the broadband speed that will be demanded by the American consumer, and are we approaching it?

Because the way I see it, most American's I know stop complaining about load times altogether once they get a stable ADSL or Cable connection. Because at that point their e-mail downloads faster than they can read it, and they can stream 1/4 screen video (like the content at apple.com/trailers) without any buffering or waiting. And pretty much any website they want to view downloads without enough of a delay for them to think of it as an inconvenience.

In Bartending, you've got a 45 second window. That's the length of time that a customer will give you between sitting down at a bar and being acknowledged by the bartender before they start to think he's slow.

So what's the window on a web page loading? 0.1 seconds? 1 second? Once bandwidth overcomes that hurdle so the end user rarely (if ever) feels that his connection is "slow", will it continue to increase?

Why would it?

Now, there are technologies (like movies on demand, etc.) that are pushing the envelope. Demanding more and more bandwidth. But will the Average American actually come to expect Full-screen video on demand? Or will it be supplied to (and eventually forced upon) him as Recording companies realize how much cheaper publishing becomes?

And what about once we reach the point where full screen hi definition video is deliverable at streaming rates?

Will Broadband widen at all after that time? Will it need to?

Will the Average American always demand more bandwidth? Why would he after his needs have been satiated? What is the next killer app that's going to be so bandwidth thirsty that it will push the limits after full screen hi-definition video is reliable? Is there one?

We'll see, I guess.